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Marine δ¹⁸O data reveal astronomical forcing of the climate and cryosphere during the Miocene, when atmosphericPco₂was on par with emissions scenarios over the next century. This inspired hypotheses for how Milankovitch cycles, ice-ocean interactions, and greenhouse gases influence ice volume. Mass balance controls for marine and terrestrial ice sheets differ, and proxy data collected far from Antarctica provide valuable but limited insight into regional processes. We evaluate clast abundance data from Antarctic marine sedimentary records, observing a strong signal of eccentricity and precession coincident with a terrestrial ice sheet and a clear obliquity signal at the margins of a marine ice sheet. These analyses are integrated with a synthesis of proxy data, and we argue that high variance in obliquity forcing (mediated and enhanced by the ocean and atmosphere) can inhibit ice sheet growth, even when insolation forcing is conducive to glaciation. This “obliquity disruption” explains cryosphere variability before the existence of large northern hemisphere ice sheets. 

Abstract. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 374 sailed to the Ross Sea in 2018 to reconstruct paleoenvironments, track the history of key water masses, and assess model simulations that show warm-water incursions from the Southern Ocean led to the loss of marine-based Antarctic ice sheets during past interglacials. IODP Site U1523 (water depth 828 m) is located at the continental shelf break, northeast of Pennell Bank on the southeastern flank of Iselin Bank, where it lies beneath the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). This site is sensitive to warm-water incursions from the Ross Sea Gyre and modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) today and during times of past warming climate. Multiple incursions of subpolar or temperate planktic foraminifera taxa occurred at Site U1523 after 3.8 Ma and prior to ∼ 1.82 Ma. Many of these warm-water taxa incursions likely represent interglacials of the latest Early Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, including Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) Gi7 to Gi3 (∼ 3.72–3.65 Ma), and Early Pleistocene MIS 91 or 90 (∼ 2.34–2.32 Ma) and MIS 77–67 (∼ 2.03–1.83 Ma) and suggest warmer-than-present conditions and less ice cover in the Ross Sea. However, a moderately resolved age model based on four key events prohibits us from precisely correlating with Marine Isotope Stages established by the LR04 Stack; therefore, these correlations are best estimates. Diatom-rich intervals during the latest Pliocene at Site U1523 include evidence of anomalously warm conditions based on the presence of subtropical and temperate planktic foraminiferal species in what likely correlates with interglacial MIS G17 (∼ 2.95 Ma), and a second interval that likely correlates with MIS KM3 (∼ 3.16 Ma) of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period. Collectively, these multiple incursions of warmer-water planktic foraminifera provide evidence for polar amplification during super-interglacials of the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. Higher abundances of planktic and benthic foraminifera during the Mid- to Late Pleistocene associated with interglacials of the MIS 37–31 interval (∼ 1.23–1.07 Ma), MIS 25 (∼ 0.95 Ma), MIS 15 (∼ 0.60 Ma), and MIS 6–5e transition (∼ 0.133–0.126 Ma) also indicate a reduced ice shelf and relatively warm conditions, including multiple warmer interglacials during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). A decrease in sedimentation rate after ∼ 1.78 Ma is followed by a major change in benthic foraminiferal biofacies marked by a decrease in Globocassidulina subglobosa and a decrease in mud (< 63 µm) after ∼ 1.5 Ma. Subsequent dominance of Trifarina earlandi biofacies beginning during MIS 15 (∼ 600 ka) indicate progressive strengthening of the Antarctic Slope Current along the shelf edge of the Ross Sea during the mid to Late Pleistocene. A sharp increase in foraminiferal fragmentation after the MPT (∼ 900 ka) and variable abundances of T. earlandi indicate higher productivity, a stronger but variable ASC during interglacials, and/or corrosive waters, suggesting changes in water masses entering (mCDW) and exiting (High Salinity Shelf Water or Dense Shelf Water) the Ross Sea since the MPT. 

Abstract Drill cores from the Antarctic continental shelf are essential for directly constraining changes in past Antarctic Ice Sheet extent. Here, we provide a sedimentary facies analysis of drill cores from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the Ross Sea, which reveals a unique, detailed snapshot of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution between ca. 18 Ma and 13 Ma. We identify distinct depositional packages, each of which contains facies successions that are reflective of past baseline shifts in the presence or absence of marine-terminating ice sheets on the outermost Ross Sea continental shelf. The oldest depositional package (>18 Ma) contains massive diamictites stacked through aggradation and deposited in a deep, actively subsiding basin that restricted marine ice sheet expansion on the outer continental shelf. A slowdown in tectonic subsidence after 17.8 Ma led to the deposition of progradational massive diamictites with thin mudstone beds/laminae, as several large marine-based ice sheet advances expanded onto the mid- to outer continental shelf between 17.8 Ma and 17.4 Ma. Between 17.2 Ma and 15.95 Ma, packages of interbedded diamictite and diatom-rich mudstone were deposited during a phase of highly variable Antarctic Ice Sheet extent and volume. This included periods of Antarctic Ice Sheet advance near the outer shelf during the early Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO)—despite this being a well-known period of peak global warmth between ca. 17.0 Ma and 14.6 Ma. Conversely, there were periods of peak warmth within the MCO during which diatom-rich mudstones with little to no ice-rafted debris were deposited, which indicates that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was greatly reduced in extent and had retreated to a smaller terrestrial-terminating ice sheet, most notably between 16.3 Ma and 15.95 Ma. Post-14.2 Ma, diamictites and diatomites contain unambiguous evidence of subglacial shearing in the core and provide the first direct, well-dated evidence of highly erosive marine ice sheets on the outermost continental shelf during the onset of the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; 14.2–13.6 Ma). Although global climate forcings and feedbacks influenced Antarctic Ice Sheet advances and retreats during the MCO and MMCT, we propose that this response was nonlinear and heavily influenced by regional feedbacks related to the shoaling of the continental shelf due to reduced subsidence, sediment infilling, and local sea-level changes that directly influenced oceanic influences on melting at the Antarctic Ice Sheet margin. Although intervals of diatom-rich muds and diatomite indicating open-marine interglacial conditions still occurred during (and following) the MMCT, repeated advances of marine-based ice sheets since that time have resulted in widespread erosion and overdeepening in the inner Ross Sea, which has greatly enhanced sensitivity to marine ice sheet instability since 14.2 Ma. 

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.